vsivakumar
07-18-2011, 05:01 PM
As the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline approaches the Phillies find themselves firmly entrenched on the “buyers” side of trade talks. Extremely likely to make the playoffs, the Phillies now must decide what will help the team maintain home field advantage and advance deep into the playoffs. Splitting up the team into 3 different categories: offense, starting pitching, and relief pitching it is clear that the team is set in the starting pitching department. Once Roy Oswalt returns from the DL the team will have its four man playoff rotation ready to go. The Phillies do however have some questions in the other two areas.
As far as offense is concerned the Phillies infield is set. The team could seek another utility infielder for the stretch run in case one of Polanco/Rollins/Utley gets hurt, but on the whole the Phillies shouldn’t and won’t look to change it. The outfield on the other hand could use an upgrade, the corner outfield combination of Raul Ibanez, Ben Francisco, and Domonic Brown has been less than spectacular. According to fangraphs this combo has been worth -0.9 WAR (wins above replacement), meaning the Phillies are getting AAA production from the 2 positions. Since Domonic Brown has gotten less than 150 at bats to this points it is a bit unfair to write him off as part of the problem, in fact it’s likely that he is part of the solution going forward. Therefore the Phillies have a few options to improve the corners: acquire a full time corner outfielder to replace Ibanez or Francisco/Brown or find a better platoon mate for Brown and/or Ibanez.
Several big names have been mentioned regarding full-time corner outfielders, namely Carlos Beltran. The problem with Carlos and most similar candidates is that they cost big money (Beltran has about $9 million left for the season). With big market teams like the Red Sox, Tigers, and Giants all in on a corner outfielder it is almost certain that the Phillies will need to pick up most of if not all of the remaining money in such a deal. That raises the question: is it worth the extra 2-3 WAR to pick up $9+ million in payroll and give up some above-average prospects? Based on pure market value the answer is yes, but when you consider that the Phillies payroll is now pushing $170 million and that Jimmy Rollins is a free agent at season’s end and Cole Hamels is one after 2012 (he’s also likely heading into a monster arbitration case after 2011) such a deal seems less than ideal.
A better option for the outfield could be a right handed platoon bat such as a Ryan Ludwick of San Diego. Ludwick has been worth 1.0 WAR up to this point and should add about 0.7 WAR for the rest of the season, at around $3 million Ludwick would be more affordable and could platoon with Brown and Ibanez to get regular at-bats.
The bullpen may be the most suspect aspect of this year’s Phillies. Ryan Madson has anchored the end of the bullpen, but other injuries have left the team reliant on Antonio Bastardo and Michael Stutes. The two have answered the bell till now, but will they be able to sustain it for the rest of the season and into the playoffs? Furthermore will the Phillies be able to match up with the bullpens of Atlanta and San Francisco in a lengthy series, with pitchers such as Johnny Venters, Craig Kimbrel, Javier Lopez, Sergio Romo, and Brian Wilson on the other side?
I doubt Rueben Amaro wants to find out... the bullpen is probably the first item of business on his big board. Like the outfield there are two types of options when it comes to improving the bullpen: the big fish (in this case closer Heath Bell of the Padres) or the highly capable set up man (for example Bell’s set-up man Mike Adams). Rumor has it that the Phillies would like to acquire both Bell and Adams from the Padres, such a deal would instantly put the Phils in conversation for the best bullpen in the bigs. However the deal would also be extremely expensive. With the Yankees and other contenders in on Bell the Padres will want the trading team to pick up all of Bell’s remaining salary ($3.25 M) and give them some B to C prospects (a Vance Worley perhaps). Adams may be even more expensive, the set up man is the Padres closer of the future and it’s debatable if he’s the better reliever of the two. What really sets Adams apart is that he was only paid $2.3 million this year and is under team control next season as well. Adding Adams means the Phillies would have a potentially elite closer for 1.5 years at around $5 million. However since he is cost-controlled next season it will take much more (in terms of prospects) to pry him from the Padres, Adams will be the centerpiece of the 2012 Padres bullpen as they try to recreate their 2010 season.
This leaves the Phillies in a tough spot, they have a great but aging team that will either cost money or prospects to improve. Taking on increased salary at the deadline could jeopardize their ability to resign younger stars such as Cole Hamels, however dealing some of the few big time prospects they have left will leave the team’s distant future more unstable. The Phillies organization may need to decide at this deadline whether to go all in with this group and react later or keep their eyes on the future and stand pat hoping the team is good enough to win as it stands (or with a minor upgrade). Either way some big decision must be made before July 31st.
As far as offense is concerned the Phillies infield is set. The team could seek another utility infielder for the stretch run in case one of Polanco/Rollins/Utley gets hurt, but on the whole the Phillies shouldn’t and won’t look to change it. The outfield on the other hand could use an upgrade, the corner outfield combination of Raul Ibanez, Ben Francisco, and Domonic Brown has been less than spectacular. According to fangraphs this combo has been worth -0.9 WAR (wins above replacement), meaning the Phillies are getting AAA production from the 2 positions. Since Domonic Brown has gotten less than 150 at bats to this points it is a bit unfair to write him off as part of the problem, in fact it’s likely that he is part of the solution going forward. Therefore the Phillies have a few options to improve the corners: acquire a full time corner outfielder to replace Ibanez or Francisco/Brown or find a better platoon mate for Brown and/or Ibanez.
Several big names have been mentioned regarding full-time corner outfielders, namely Carlos Beltran. The problem with Carlos and most similar candidates is that they cost big money (Beltran has about $9 million left for the season). With big market teams like the Red Sox, Tigers, and Giants all in on a corner outfielder it is almost certain that the Phillies will need to pick up most of if not all of the remaining money in such a deal. That raises the question: is it worth the extra 2-3 WAR to pick up $9+ million in payroll and give up some above-average prospects? Based on pure market value the answer is yes, but when you consider that the Phillies payroll is now pushing $170 million and that Jimmy Rollins is a free agent at season’s end and Cole Hamels is one after 2012 (he’s also likely heading into a monster arbitration case after 2011) such a deal seems less than ideal.
A better option for the outfield could be a right handed platoon bat such as a Ryan Ludwick of San Diego. Ludwick has been worth 1.0 WAR up to this point and should add about 0.7 WAR for the rest of the season, at around $3 million Ludwick would be more affordable and could platoon with Brown and Ibanez to get regular at-bats.
The bullpen may be the most suspect aspect of this year’s Phillies. Ryan Madson has anchored the end of the bullpen, but other injuries have left the team reliant on Antonio Bastardo and Michael Stutes. The two have answered the bell till now, but will they be able to sustain it for the rest of the season and into the playoffs? Furthermore will the Phillies be able to match up with the bullpens of Atlanta and San Francisco in a lengthy series, with pitchers such as Johnny Venters, Craig Kimbrel, Javier Lopez, Sergio Romo, and Brian Wilson on the other side?
I doubt Rueben Amaro wants to find out... the bullpen is probably the first item of business on his big board. Like the outfield there are two types of options when it comes to improving the bullpen: the big fish (in this case closer Heath Bell of the Padres) or the highly capable set up man (for example Bell’s set-up man Mike Adams). Rumor has it that the Phillies would like to acquire both Bell and Adams from the Padres, such a deal would instantly put the Phils in conversation for the best bullpen in the bigs. However the deal would also be extremely expensive. With the Yankees and other contenders in on Bell the Padres will want the trading team to pick up all of Bell’s remaining salary ($3.25 M) and give them some B to C prospects (a Vance Worley perhaps). Adams may be even more expensive, the set up man is the Padres closer of the future and it’s debatable if he’s the better reliever of the two. What really sets Adams apart is that he was only paid $2.3 million this year and is under team control next season as well. Adding Adams means the Phillies would have a potentially elite closer for 1.5 years at around $5 million. However since he is cost-controlled next season it will take much more (in terms of prospects) to pry him from the Padres, Adams will be the centerpiece of the 2012 Padres bullpen as they try to recreate their 2010 season.
This leaves the Phillies in a tough spot, they have a great but aging team that will either cost money or prospects to improve. Taking on increased salary at the deadline could jeopardize their ability to resign younger stars such as Cole Hamels, however dealing some of the few big time prospects they have left will leave the team’s distant future more unstable. The Phillies organization may need to decide at this deadline whether to go all in with this group and react later or keep their eyes on the future and stand pat hoping the team is good enough to win as it stands (or with a minor upgrade). Either way some big decision must be made before July 31st.