vsivakumar
07-07-2011, 12:13 PM
"We'll win 100 games,"
Jimmy Rollins has never been short on predictions, in 2007 he famously prognosticated the Phillies run to the NL East title over the rival Mets.
Four years later he was back at it again, offering up an even bolder prediction for the 2011 squad.
So... more than half way through the 2011 season are the Phils in position to make good on Jimmy’s pledge?
In order to go 100-62 the team needs to win at a .617 clip, after 87 games the Phillies are 55-33 good for a .625 winning percentage which puts them on pace to win between 101 and 102 games.
So if the Phillies continue to play as well as they have been they’ll reach 100 wins for the third time in franchise history with a couple games to square... question is will they?
A common stat used to judge record validity is run differential, the Phillies are currently +78 in run differential, good for best in the NL and third best in baseball (behind New York and Boston). The Pythagorean Record is a metric used to turn run differential into an expected record, it can then be compared to the actual record to determine if a team is outplaying (inflated record) or underplaying (deflated record) their Pythagorean Record.
Right now the Phillies +78 run differential has translated to a 53-35 pythagorean record, meaning the Phillies are currently outplaying it by two games. If you project this pythagorean record to the 162 games that leaves the Phillies at 98-64.
The Phillies are currently on pace to win 100+ games for the third time in franchise history, however their differential and pythagorean record suggest that the team may not be playing up to that pace. With a difference of only 2 games between the record and projection it looks like Rollins’ guarantee will come right down to the wire.
Jimmy Rollins has never been short on predictions, in 2007 he famously prognosticated the Phillies run to the NL East title over the rival Mets.
Four years later he was back at it again, offering up an even bolder prediction for the 2011 squad.
So... more than half way through the 2011 season are the Phils in position to make good on Jimmy’s pledge?
In order to go 100-62 the team needs to win at a .617 clip, after 87 games the Phillies are 55-33 good for a .625 winning percentage which puts them on pace to win between 101 and 102 games.
So if the Phillies continue to play as well as they have been they’ll reach 100 wins for the third time in franchise history with a couple games to square... question is will they?
A common stat used to judge record validity is run differential, the Phillies are currently +78 in run differential, good for best in the NL and third best in baseball (behind New York and Boston). The Pythagorean Record is a metric used to turn run differential into an expected record, it can then be compared to the actual record to determine if a team is outplaying (inflated record) or underplaying (deflated record) their Pythagorean Record.
Right now the Phillies +78 run differential has translated to a 53-35 pythagorean record, meaning the Phillies are currently outplaying it by two games. If you project this pythagorean record to the 162 games that leaves the Phillies at 98-64.
The Phillies are currently on pace to win 100+ games for the third time in franchise history, however their differential and pythagorean record suggest that the team may not be playing up to that pace. With a difference of only 2 games between the record and projection it looks like Rollins’ guarantee will come right down to the wire.